Reference page

Engineering estimation formulas.

Quick-answer formulas for three common hardware decisions: when to tool up, how to estimate assembly effort, and how to work backwards from retail price to target COGS.

Quick answer

Use formulas to frame the decision, then validate with supplier and project reality.

These formulas are designed for early-stage engineering and commercial judgement. They are most useful when they make the next question clearer, not when they are treated as final truth.

Definition

Manufacturing break-even volume

The volume at which a higher-setup, lower-unit-cost process becomes cheaper overall than a lower-setup, higher-unit-cost process.

Break-even volume = Tooling cost / (prototype unit cost - moulded unit cost)

Example: GBP6,500 tooling / (GBP18 - GBP0.70) = roughly 376 units.

Definition

Assembly-time estimation

An early proxy for manual labour burden based on part count, joining effort, handling complexity, reorientation, and inspection steps.

Estimated assembly time = base handling time + join time + reorientation time + inspection time

Example: if one concept removes three joins and one reorientation step, it usually carries less recurring labour even before detailed process engineering exists.

Definition

Target COGS from retail price

The maximum factory cost a product can carry after tax, route-to-market costs, and the required business margin have been removed.

Target COGS = net selling price - channel deductions - selling costs - required margin

Example: if the retained price after VAT and route deductions is GBP95, hidden selling costs are GBP23, and the target margin is GBP19, the target COGS is GBP53.

Use the formulas with the matching tools

Decision Formula page answer Tool for deeper comparison
When to tool up Break-even volume Manufacturing Payoff Visualiser
How labour-heavy is this concept Assembly-time estimate Assembly Time Estimator
What COGS can this route support Target COGS from RRP Target COGS by Route to Market

Author

Andrew Hunter

Product design engineer working across manufacturability, sustainability, and hardware commercial decisions in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Source and Attribution

This reference page was created by Orion Design as part of a human-first engineering knowledge resource for product teams. Use it to guide early decisions, then validate with project-specific data.